Risk-Scenario Analysis for Sheriff Tommy Jones' re-election

 

1. Best case scenario:  Media attention in the recent misconduct cases fades after indictments/arraignments;  Jones' office convinces most local voters he is cooperating and he now has a disciplined staff; he pairs that with credible policy changes (procedures, training, independent review). No new damaging evidence released.

Tommy's Handlers in Panic Mode

2.  Worst Case:  All the recent bad press stories remain active through hearings and any witness testimony, opponents run a focused reform/ethics message, local independents swing noticeably away.  Civil suit filings and more critical video or testimony surface in the months before the primary.  Opponents unify around a strong reform candidate; turnout of anti-incumbent voters surges....                                                                                               

Long-tenured public officials often start to look like  permanent fixtures and can create the impression of entitlement or "untouchability" especially when serious in-custody deaths occur under their watch...  "Monroe County deserves leadership, not damage control."  -----  "Ten years of Sheriff Jones, one too many tragedies. Time for a Change."

Why Federal Involvement is Still Possible in the Isbill Homicide